Bitcoin Supply Hits 12-Month Low - Weekly Onchain Outlook
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Key Takeaways
The setup is there, but the trigger isn't. Bitcoin supply on exchanges is at a 12-month low — the sell side is thin. But stablecoin inflows are slowing and rotating into safe yield like USDS rather than risk assets. The market is coiled and waiting. Neutral
If a catalyst lands this week, the move could be sharp · Thin supply plus any positive news — a geopolitical de-escalation or a clean jobless claims print — and there is very little Bitcoin available to absorb buying pressure.
Three protocols worth acting on before the crowd catches up · Mellow’s airdrop setup is textbook and the vault could reopen any day. Re is generating real daily revenue from reinsurance premiums with no token yet. Nado is Kraken’s perp DEX on Ink — no token, points live, $5B in volume before most people knew it existed. All three reward early movers.
Trading Calendar 🗓️
The week of 24 March arrives with crypto in an awkward spot. Bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 before pulling back hard to around $68,700 after Trump’s comments about potentially targeting Iran’s power plants rattled markets, and back to 71K level after Trump announced peace efforts with Iran officials.
Everything seems to move with liquidity levels and Trump’s tweets.
This week holds no major macroeconomic data except for Bank of Japan’s Meeting Minutes and US Initial Jobless Claims, which are a lower impact, some smaller token unlocks, and USD.Ai and Makina TGE are expected to launch this month.
Source: tradingeconomics
This Week’s Winners - and What’s Driving Them:
The RWA sector is the dominant theme this week. Anemoy, MatrixDock, AFI, and Centrifuge are all pulling in capital for the same reason — yields backed by real assets like Treasuries, gold, and private credit are simply more attractive than token emissions right now.
On the lending side, Curvance’s 8%+ stablecoin APY on Monad is real but incentive-driven, meaning enjoy it while it lasts. Moreover, Curvance lets you leverage loop stablecoins for yields of more than 30% on Monad.
Mellow Protocol’s TVL has been performing really well since Lido’s EarnUSD and EarnETH vaults (earning 5% APR)launched last week, which drove more than 100M TVL since launch, and traction is still continuing this week.
Re - on top of new PT and YT assets, Morpho integrated Re’s reUSD as collateral, enabling a leveraged farm for more than 20%. Although Re is a stablecoin protocol backed by reinsurance policies, reUSD is their senior tranche, being the last to absorb all reinsurance-related risks.
Cap Money has been benefiting from their boosted airdrop campaign which ends in around 1 month, and not being exposed to Resolv, unlike many other stablecoin projects, gives Cap along with other yield-bearing stablecoin products like Avant, Reservoir, an edge on other
Unitas and Termmax launched meaningful integration on the BNB chain, driving stablecoin inflows into the chain and real inflows and TVL increase on Unitas and Term Max. You can now earn points and yields directly on the Binance Wallet app from TermMax. Meanwhile, not only Unitas’s $UP TGE on Binance launchpad, their stablecoin USDu, along with PT/YT USDu, are listed on BNB Chain as well, triggering TVl and inflows into the BNB Chain
Source: Defillama
Interesting Smaller Protocol:
Nado — Native Perp DEX on Ink
Nado is Kraken’s DEX built on their own Layer 2, Ink, and it is the most important protocol in that ecosystem right now.
The yield opportunity is the NLP vault — you deposit USDT0, earn from trading fees and liquidation flows, and your NLP position doubles as collateral so you can still trade while earn 20%+ APR stablecoin yield.
TVL is growing alongside perp volume, there is no token yet, and a points programme is live rewarding trading and vault participation. With Kraken’s 10 million user base and a planned IPO, the distribution story here is one of the strongest in the perp DEX space.
Link to Nado here
ETF Flows🏦
After a brutal January where Bitcoin ETFs bled $1.5 billion in a single week, the last month has looked a lot healthier. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $787 million the week of February 27, then $569 million, then $763 million. This week it slowed down to just $93 million in net inflows, and Ethereum ETFs actually saw $60 million leave.
But the key point is that the trend has been mostly positive since February. Institutions are not panic selling, and they are not aggressively buying either. They are slowly, steadily re-entering.
Ethereum ETF flows remain messy and inconsistent, which reflects a broader uncertainty around ETH’s story right now compared to Bitcoin. Nothing alarming, but nothing exciting either.
Source: Farside Investors
Exchange Flows & Whale Behavior 🐋
This is one of the more encouraging signals in this week’s data. Over the past twelve months, the amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges has dropped from around 3 million BTC to 2.71 million BTC. That is a meaningful decline. When Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it generally means people are moving it into their own wallets with no intention to sell anytime soon.
Looking at March 16- 23 specifically, the net flow data has been almost entirely negative, meaning more Bitcoin has been flowing off exchanges than onto them. There was one spike around March 15 to 16 where coins moved back in, but that was brief. As of March 22, the pattern of withdrawal continues.
This does not mean a price rally is around the corner. What it does mean is that the amount of Bitcoin available for people to sell is shrinking. If a positive catalyst shows up this week, whether from the macro data or a resolution to the geopolitical tension, the market could react more sharply upward than people expect simply because the sell-side supply is thin.
Source: CryptoQuant
Stablecoin Flows🪙
The total flow is slowing down but still positive. Net stablecoin inflows came in at $831 million for the week of March 23. That sounds like a big number, but it is a sharp slowdown from $3.5 billion two weeks ago and $2.9 billion last week. The market is consolidating. Fresh money is still coming in, just at a much slower pace.
The stablecoins people are choosing are changing. USDS led all stablecoin growth this week with $330 million in new supply, followed by USYC at $166 million and Ripple’s RLUSD at $133 million. What these three have in common is that they all pay yield to holders.
USDS has been dominating flows for the past month, and this will show something about the current market condition. While Institutions have been accumulating through Bitcoin ETFs, most of the on-chain signals, especially stablecoin flows, are hinting towards a risk-off view.
Meanwhile, USDC lost $174 million and USD1 lost $160 million. People are clearly rotating out of plain dollar-pegged coins and into ones that actually earn a return while you hold them, especially since WLFI rewards program is ending soon with USD1.
This is a meaningful structural shift in how people are using stablecoins.
Source: Defillama
Alpha Between Chain Flows:
Ethereum absorbed $1.736 billion in stablecoin inflows this week, more than double any other chain. BNB Chain received $664 million, Arbitrum $237 million, and Hyperliquid $174 million. That last number is worth noting. Hyperliquid is still a relatively young platform, and pulling in $174 million in stablecoins in a single week means serious trading capital is actively being deployed there.
On the other side, Tron lost $729 million in stablecoin outflows and Solana lost $388 million. Other than USDS’s massive flow this week, a big part of what is happening here is that USDT0, which is Tether’s newer cross-chain version built on LayerZero, is growing fast on Ethereum and pulling liquidity away from Tron where old-school USDT has historically dominated. Capital is moving toward Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem and away from Tron’s more centralised setup.
Eanr 12% Leveraged APR on BlueChip ETH Assets
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