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Today’s News Headlines:
ICE and OKX Plan 24/7 Tokenized Stocks on Uniswap,
Polymarket Teases a Possible $POLY Token Ahead of Token2049
Variational Lists $CNA50 China Index Perp
Monad Private Settlement for Banks and Enterprises
YO Protocol launches V2 with improved fund management
Hyundai exploring Avalanche for compliance and transactions
Strategy Buys 334 BTC for $28.7M, Lifts Holdings to a Record
ZachXBT Links Undercover Probe to a 442,000 USDT Tether Freeze.
Metaplanet Sold 10,000 BTC in Q3, Then Bought Back 11,000.
Key Takeaways:
Crypto Outperformed Equities in a Hostile Macro Environment
Cash is leaving the trading stablecoins, and Ether lagged Bitcoin. Leverage costs stayed modest, and Bitcoin still rose about 1% on a soft jobs report, so we call the regime MIXED, weaker than last week.
Tempo, a Stripe-backed payments chain, leads stablecoin inflows
Open USD (OUSD), a new stablecoin backed by Coinbase, Visa and Mastercard, supplied 90% most of it. Ethereum and Hyperliquid lost a combined $1.2B.
Fundamentals drove this week’s token movers.
PUMP (+24.6%) puts half its net revenue, about $1.2M a day, into buy-and-burn. SYRUP (+21.1%) has a revenue-funded buyback and about $3.0B of TVL held up by yields near 5%, against a 3.69% market average. FLUID (+27.4%) benefited from Jupiter Lend’s TVL increase, and AAVE (+20.4%) has a founder considering a token burn.
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Macro Brief
Rates and the dollar.
The week’s data came in better than expected for risk assets. Core PCE came in cooler (3.0% against 3.3% expected), and the jobs report showed 29K new jobs against 84K expected. Together they cut the odds of an October Fed hike to about 20% by Friday.
The 2-year yield, the one most tied to Fed expectations, slipped only 0.03 percentage points to about 4.83%, with a December hike still priced. The harder part of the backdrop was the long end. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% on Thursday, its highest since 2002, and Brent stayed above $100 after Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz offer.
Crypto Outperformed Equities For 3 Weeks Straight
Crypto reacted better to the data than equities did. Bitcoin rose about 3% toward $87K after Friday's jobs report, a bigger move than the Nasdaq's 1.2% gain that day, then eased back to about $85K. It held up in a week when the 10-year yield hit its highest since 2002, and since mid-August Bitcoin is up about a third while equities stayed flat.
Crypto Capital On-Ramp
BTC and ETH Exchange balances split directions
BTC held on exchanges edged down 0.1% to 2.683M BTC, a second weekly decline. Coins moving off exchanges usually means holders are keeping them rather than preparing to sell.
Meanwhile, ETH on exchanges edged up 0.2% to 14.69M after falling last week, so slightly more ETH now sits where it can be sold.
ETF flows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in only $82.9M from Sept 28 to Oct 2, a 96% drop from the record $2.39B the week before. Ether ETFs flipped to a $118M outflow, and Solana ETFs were nearly flat. After a record week, demand cooled sharply, and Ether is cooling faster than Bitcoin.
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Week-Ahead Catalysts
Macro
Oct 6–8: $119B of Treasury auctions ($58B of 3-year notes Tuesday, $39B of 10-year Wednesday, $22B of 30-year Thursday). With the 10-year yield near 5.3% after touching its highest level since 2002 last week, weak demand would push yields higher, which hurts risk assets.
Wed Oct 7, 2:00 PM ET: The meeting predates the weak jobs report. Markets price in about an 80% chance of a hold on Oct 28 and about a 70% chance of a hike by December.
Wed Oct 14, 8:30 AM ET: September CPI, the last inflation reading before the Oct 28 decision.
Crypto
Hyperliquid (HYPE), Tue Oct 7: unlock. About 3.75M HYPE, roughly $340M or 1.7% of supply.
Ethena (ENA), Mon Oct 5: unlock and lock-up waiver. About 172M ENA ($42M, 1.9% of supply) unlocks, and the lock-up on roughly 3.03B ENA held through StablecoinX (about 20% of supply) is waived. Any sale of those tokens would still need the Ethena Foundation’s consent and five business days’ notice.
Oct 6: Ethereum’s Glamsterdam testnet activates on Sepolia, and the mainnet has no confirmed date yet.
Oct 7–8: TOKEN2049 Singapore.
Oct 28: Blast withdrawal deadline is Oct 26, and Balancer’s withdrawals-only date is Oct 30
Onchain Risk Regime
Individual Stablecoins Flows
A new payments stablecoin, Open USD (OUSD), added $660M in its first week. OUSD is a dollar stablecoin for businesses, launched Sept 30 by Open Standard and backed by Coinbase, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe, and Visa.
Stripe’s Bridge issues it, and companies can mint and redeem it 1:1 for dollars at no cost. It runs on Ethereum, Base, Solana, and Stripe’s Tempo chain. The founders have committed over $1B to seed it, so early supply says little about adoption yet.
USDC and USDT are the stablecoins traders use to buy and sell crypto and to move money between exchanges and apps. Together they lost 783M(USDC-1.05B, USDT +$267M), against a $1.18B gain the week before. Tokenized Treasury funds, which people hold mainly to earn yield rather than to trade, kept growing: Circle’s USYC added $335M and Ondo’s USDY added $333M.
Chain Comparison
Stablecoin flows by chain
Stablecoin supply rose $619M (+0.2%), half of last week’s pace. Tokenized funds that DefiLlama counts separately, such as Circle’s USYC and USD AI’s USDAI, are excluded below.
Tempo +$430M.
Stripe’s payments chain holds most of the new Open USD, 65% of its stablecoins. Meanwhile, USDC on Tempo fell 33%.
Solana +$158M, against $835M last week.
Jupiter’s Lend vaults grew stablecoin deposits from $59M to $195M while its perps lost $12M. Trading cooled elsewhere, with DEX volume down 9% at Pump and 31% at Raydium. Trading volume is decreasing as capital flees to a more conservative venue.
Fees and trading activity
Monad. Chain fees rose 19% to $141K and app fees 12% to $1.63M.
Uniswap (+97%) and Nad.fun — a relatively new memecoin launchpad protocol on Monad (+475%, off a small base) — drove the growth, while lending and vaults, about 60% of fees, were flat.
What makes Nad.fun interesting is that, like Pump.fun, people can launch memes or any coins paired with tokenized stocks. While Solana’s and Robinhood memes are losing in traded volume, capital seems to be fleeing to Monad for memecoin trading.
On a side note, Stablecoin supply rose $26M (+3.8%) to $711M, led by USDC (+10%). Aave’s stablecoin markets pay about 6.06%, roughly 1.7 points of it in WMON rewards, against a 3.69% weekly average on Sphere. Aave holds $177M of USDC, about three-quarters of Monad’s USDC. About 91% of that is borrowed, so only about $16M can be withdrawn at once.
BSC Chain fees rose 6% to $4.55M and app fees 24% to $25M.
Flap.sh, a token launchpad similar to Nad.fun and Pump.fun, supplied about 73% of the gain (+$3.6M, to $10.8M).
On PancakeSwap, most trading volume went to newly launched tokens like DEBIT and CT, Debit AI and Concrete’s utility token, which had their TGE on Sept 30.
DEBIT is the usage-credit token of Debit AI, an AI agent that links loan marketplaces to onchain actions, and it was listed on Kraken on Oct 2. CT’s 24-hour volume (on Uniswap) is about two to four times its market cap.
Concrete (CT) is the governance token of an onchain yield-vault platform that reports $1.2B in deposits. It launched Sept 30 on Binance Alpha, peaked near $0.62 on Oct 2, and has since fallen about 30%.
The GMGN trading terminal (+41%) and OKX DEX (+214%, off a small base) added $1.6M, while Uniswap fell 27%. Two new tokens also traded heavily.
Token Price Movers - Observations, not trade ideas.
FLUID +27.4% - The Solana link matters most. Jupiter Lend is backed by Fluid, so its rising TVL benefits Fluid. Jupiter took in $124M this week (+62%), and Jupiter Lend's stablecoin deposits grew from $59M to $195M.
PUMP +24.6%: buyback revenue is running hot. Half of net revenue goes to buy-and-burn on Pump’s buyback page, about $1.2M a day now. That is roughly 14% of market cap a year if the pace holds, and revenue runs about 35% above its 30-day pace. The mechanism is locked until April 2027, and it only pays when memecoin trading does.
SYRUP +21.1% Maple’s revenue-funded buyback dates to August. TVL has sustained near $3.0B since late August, supported by higher yields Maple has been paying, averaging 5% against a 3.69% market average (the live rate may differ).
The buyback is relatively small percentage-wise, so the draw is the yield.
AAVE +20.4%: Stani, Aave founder, is considering a token burn. No proposal exists yet. Alongside that, V4 loans passed $400M, cumulative all-time borrow volume exceeds $1.1 trillion, and tokenized-stock collateral is live on Base.