Weekly Onchain Outlook - 3 Straight Weeks of ETF Inflows
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Key Takeaways
ETF inflows are accelerating, not slowing — Three consecutive weeks of positive BTC ETF inflows ($787M → $569M → $763M) mirror the early stages of the Q4 2024 rally, and mark the first time since Bitcoin’s October all-time high that both BTC and ETH ETFs sustained 3 weeks of consecutive net inflows.
Fresh institutional capital is flooding back in, but playing it safe — Stablecoin inflows hit $2.9B this week, with USDC dominating at 65% of total flows, signaling regulated institutional capital re-entering crypto rails — mostly for farming and yield, not directional trading.
A cautionary whale signal to watch — After weeks of healthy BTC outflows from exchanges, a sharp 12.5K BTC inflow spike on March 15 near the critical $72-80K resistance zone suggests potential profit-taking.
Trading Calendar 🗓️
This week holds a major announcement on the Fed's interest rate. After weeks of war and geopolitical tension, Bitcoin’s price performed quite well during this time of crisis. As mentioned in our previous analysis, macro data no longer drives Bitcoin’s Price, but real liquidity is being injected into the market as uncertainty has passed.
This week’s Fed rate decision should be quite priced in due to the fear of inflation from rising Oil prices, elevated tension since Iran only allows Oil to be traded in Chinese Yuan, which will affect decisions later.
Source: tradingeconomics
Last Week’s Winners📈
The biggest DeFi story last week was geopolitics — the Iran conflict and oil spiking above $105 pushed traders into on-chain derivatives that trade 24/7. Derive (+54%) hit record options volume and crossed $1B in open interest, while Hyperliquid (+17.5%) saw $500M+ in oil trading in a single day and got an Arthur Hayes $150 price target endorsement, which left people questioning his thesis.
Maple Finance (+17%) was the fundamentals standout with real TVL and revenue growth powering its rally. The rest — COMP, TRIA, Kamino, DeepBook, Bitway — were mostly benefitting from new listings, or launch hype rather than anything uniquely compelling.
Source: Coin Gecko
ETF Flows🏦
The 3-week positive streak with increasing magnitude is a historically reliable sign and leading indicator to sustained price appreciation. The week of March 6 saw +$569M BTC inflows, and March 15 recorded +$763M BTC and +$161M ETH inflows.
This is the first time since the October all time-high price, when Bitcoin and ETH ETFs got 3 weeks of consecutive net inflows.
The pattern of three consecutive positive BTC weeks ($787M, $569M, $763M) shows accelerating momentum. This mirrors the early stages of the Q4 2024 ETF-driven rally.
Source: Farside Investors
Exchange Flows & Whale Behavior 🐋
The Mar 9-13 outflows were a healthy accumulation signal, consistent with whales withdrawing BTC to cold storage during the price recovery from $66K to $72K. However, the sharp +12.5K BTC INFLOW on Mar 15 is a CAUTIONARY signal. It coincides with BTC reaching $72.8K, near the critical $72-$80K resistance zone.
This likely represents holders depositing BTC to exchanges to SELL or take profits at resistance. However, looking at the major data from exchange reserves, we are not seeing any net increase in reserves, which means the 12.5k BTC inflows on March 14 were minor take profits rather than a huge distribution.
Source: CryptoQuant
Stablecoin Flows🪙
This is the 4=5th consecutive positive week after the January/February outflow period. The sequence reads: +$0.525B, +$0.923B, +$0.446B, then jumping to +$3.515B and +$2.924B in the most recent week. That is a massive acceleration.
Fresh capital is flooding back into crypto rails at the fastest pace since the October 2025 rally. Stablecoin inflows are the most reliable leading indicator of BTC price appreciation, typically by 1-3 weeks. However, some variables are not the same as September to October Stablecoin surplus momentum. Here’s what’s different:
Source: Defillama
Stablecoin Growth by Asset: Nature & Signal Analysis
USDC dominance ($1.9B of $2.9B total = 65%) means this is institutional-grade capital entering via regulated channels. InstitutionalUSDC is the primary institutional on-ramp. Backed by BlackRock-managed reserves and now regulated. USDS growth ($605M) is yield-seeking, not speculative. DAI outflow is just rotation to USDS.
Unlike last week, the sUSDS TVL didn’t grow as much as the USDS TVL - so the increase this week is more of inflows to USDS from DAI.
USYC, a tokenized money market fund backed by U.S. Treasury bills, designed by Hashnote Labs (now part of Circle), which also got tons of inflows this week, +$271M. Signalling demand on RWA yields, which are also more stable and proven.
This is kind of a mixed signal as fresh institutional money is entering aggressively for stablecoin issuance/farming - not necessarily trading. Moreover, tons of conservative capital are searching to earn conservative and proven yield.
Source: Defillama
Alpha Between Chain Flows:
Ethereum yet again led stablecoin inflows this week, which consists os mostly of USDC and USDS - both farming - focused stablecoins. Most protocols have been doing well this week, with yields and incentives overflowing everywhere. BNB Chain has been benefiting due to ListaDAO’s fixed borrowing rates that let you lock in 25%+ Stablecoin APY.
Most of the protocols that lead Ethereum’s stablecoin inflows are vault infrastructure protocols like Mellow and Concrete, thanks to new vaults that launched last week, like Theo Network’s thUSD (gold-backed stablecoin) on Concrete and Lido’s new simplified EarnUSD and EarnETH vaults on Mellow, raised inflows for more then $100M for each protocol.
Hyperliquid’s Hidden Catalyst?
Native Markets (USDH) — This is the one to watch closely
What makes this stand out from everything else on this list is the economic flywheel: reserves managed by BlackRock and Superstate, custody at JP Morgan and Fireblocks, and 50% of revenue funds HYPE buybacks. The 20% lower taker fees and 50% higher maker rebates on USDH-quoted pairs create a genuine usage incentive — not just “hold this and earn yield” but “trade with this and save money.” That’s a real demand driver.
HYPE hodlers will benefit from the additional buyback pressure generated by USDH revenue that will be live soon, launched by Native Markets.
Link to Native Markets here
Earn 10%+ Stablecoin APY on New Stablecoin
Apyx (apyUSD) — Genuinely novel model, but very early
A stablecoin backed by preferred equity dividends from public companies is something that hasn’t really existed before. The 11% yield comes from actual corporate dividend cash flows, not emissions or funding rates. $41M TVL in the first few weeks is impressive traction.
The catch: It’s brand new (launched early 2026). The “Digital Asset Treasury” model depends on companies like DeFi Development Corp continuing to pay dividends. If the underlying companies cut dividends or the equity depreciates, the yield disappears, and your principal could be at risk. It’s essentially a structured credit product dressed up as a stablecoin.
Link to Protocol here
Farm ~13% APR from Stablecoin LP on Monad
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